With drought and extreme high-temperature weather caused by climate change frequently rise, the global output of barley will face a decline by 3% to 17% by the end of the century, according to a newly released research on Nature Plants. The range of decline lies on the degree of climate change. Therefore, the price of beer, whose raw material is barley, will see a soar. Under the worst climate condition, the price of beer in Ireland will witness a 43% to 336% increase.

CNN holds citing this research that the average global reduction of barley will bring much more severe impact on America, Germany and Russia. Business inside report has pointed out that barley is easy to be influenced by drought and high-temperature weather. Global warming and extreme weathers will lead to the drop off in global beer consumption by 16%. According to Fortune, the price of beer around the world will double. The sales volume of beer in America will see a slump——around 10 billion cans.

The research brought new opportunities to wine and liquor market. With the reduction of sales volume and increase of price of beer, customer will have to turn to wine and liquor as substitute. While general demand of alcohol product remains unchanged, wine and liquor will have more market space. Moreover, with the increase of living standard, people tend to look for a healthier lifestyle. According to the statistic released by Wine Intelligence, a market research and consulting company of wine industry, 62% of American wine consumer and 59% of Chinese import wine consumer acknowledge that they are seeking ways for improving self-happiness, which have profound impact on alcohol consumption. Some consumer start to drink healthier alcohol beverage, such as wine. WABA has conducted an experiment with Guizhou Moutai. It turned out that the P53 partial in the liquor is benefit for health, which has proved the health of liquor represented by Moutai. Hence, wine and liquor, serving as substitut of beer, would get better opportunities when the output of barley reduce and the price of beer go up.



Fu Shuang, Researcher of WABA

June 10, 2019